JP Morgan And Other Major Banks Predict Gold Could Soar Above $5,000 in 2026

The world's leading financial institutions are painting an overwhelmingly bullish picture for gold in 2026, with several major banks forecasting prices could breach the psychologically significant $5,000 per ounce barrier for the first time in history.

The Bullish Consensus

Goldman Sachs recently revised its year-end 2026 forecast upward to $5,400 per ounce, a notable increase from its earlier projection of $4,900. The investment bank points to elevated private-sector diversification and emerging market central bank purchases, projected to average around 60 tonnes in 2026, as key drivers behind this optimistic outlook.

JP Morgan has set its sights on approximately $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank expects quarterly demand to remain robust at 585-566 tonnes, supported by continued central bank accumulation and strong investor flows into bars, coins, and exchange-traded funds.

Bank of America stands among the most bullish forecasters, targeting $5,000 by 2026, positioning gold as a primary hedge and performance driver in investment portfolios.

The Supporting Cast

Other major institutions have also adopted constructive stances, though with slightly more conservative targets. Morgan Stanley anticipates prices reaching $4,400-$4,500 by mid-2026, citing the continuation of the current gold rally supported by central bank and ETF flows.

HSBC forecasts prices around $4,600, with potential to peak near $5,000 in the first half of 2026, though the bank cautions about possible corrections later in the year. UBS projects approximately $4,500, while Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered have set targets around $4,450 and $4,488 respectively.

The unweighted consensus across these institutions falls within a range of $4,800-$5,000 per ounce for 2026, with most forecasts clustering above $4,400.

What's Driving the Rally?

Multiple factors underpin these bullish projections. Central banks have emerged as persistent buyers, with accumulation averaging approximately 190 tonnes per quarter according to JP Morgan's analysis. This appetite for gold reflects broader concerns about currency diversification and monetary stability.

The anticipated Federal Reserve easing cycle represents another crucial tailwind. As real yields decline through potential rate cuts, non-yield-bearing assets like gold become relatively more attractive to investors seeking safe-haven exposure.

Recent price action has already validated some of this optimism. Spot gold prices reached near-record levels above $4,800 per ounce in early 2026, demonstrating the momentum behind institutional forecasts and bringing the prospect of $5,000 gold into clearer view.

The Outlier View

Not everyone shares the enthusiasm. Citibank stands out with a contrarian forecast of $3,250, envisioning a "normalisation" scenario where profit-taking after the recent rally drives prices substantially lower. This outlier perspective serves as a reminder that consensus views don't always materialise.

Risks on the Horizon

Even the bullish banks acknowledge potential headwinds. A faster-than-expected Fed tightening cycle or slower rate cuts could dampen safe-haven flows. Similarly, a strengthening US dollar or rising real yields might reduce gold's attractiveness relative to yield-bearing alternatives.

Goldman Sachs specifically notes that if macroeconomic policy concerns diminish materially, gold could weaken as hedging flows reduce. Market positioning also presents risks—after a strong rally, profit-taking around key technical levels could trigger volatility.

Looking Further Ahead

JP Morgan has extended its bullish view beyond 2026, targeting $6,000 by 2028 under a scenario of sustained diversification narratives and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The bank has also flagged potential for even higher peaks above $5,200-$5,300 in structural stress scenarios.

Investment Implications

For precious metals investors, the institutional consensus suggests maintaining or potentially increasing strategic allocations to gold. The forecast range provides useful scenario planning parameters, with a base case of $4,500-$5,000 and a bullish stretch target around $5,400 or higher.

However, disciplined portfolio positioning remains essential. The wide spread between the most bullish forecasts and Citibank's contrarian view underscores the uncertainty inherent in any market projection. Monitoring Federal Reserve communications, real yield dynamics, and central bank purchasing patterns will be crucial for tactical adjustments throughout the year.

As 2026 unfolds, gold appears positioned to continue its role as both a portfolio diversifier and a barometer of global economic and geopolitical stress. Whether prices ultimately reach the lofty targets set by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan remains to be seen, but the institutional consensus suggests the precious metal's multi-year bull run is far from over.